PETITION No. 2006Z -0106 SFC

2006VC-0152 SFC


 

PROPOSED ZONING                     A-L (APARTMENT-LIMITED) - 17.15 UNITS PER ACRE

 

PROPOSED USE                               APARTMENTS - 48 UNITS

 

EXISTING ZONING                           AG-1 (AGRICULTURAL)

MIX (MIXED USE) - 2002Z -0124 SFC

 

EXISTING USE                                    UNDEVELOPED

 

LAND USE MAP                                  BUSINESS PARK

 

LOCATION                                              PLANTATION ROAD (WEST SIDE):

                                                                        35 FEET OF FRONTAGE

 

                                                                        PARCEL SIZE 2.80 ACRES

 

                                                                        SMALL AREA 706

 

                                                                        LL 26, DISTRICT 9F

 

            COMMISSION DISTRICT 7

                                                                       

OWNER                                                    EWBW LLC.

 

PETITIONER                                         SPJC LAND HOLDINGS, LLC.

 

REPRESENTATIVE                          NATHAN V. HENDRICKS III

 


 

APPLICANT'S INTENT                   To develop 48 apartment units on 2.80 acres at a density of 17.15 units per acre.  The applicant is also seeking a concurrent variance to delete the required 10-foot landscape strip adjacent to the mixed use zoning.



Department of Environment and Community Development

Recommendation

 

APPROVAL CONDITIONAL: 2006Z -0106 SFC

APPROVAL: 2006VC-0152 SFC

 

 

 

Community Zoning Board Recommendation

 

APPROVAL CONDITIONAL: 2006Z -0106 SFC

APPROVAL: 2006VC-0152 SFC

 


SUBJECT SITE AND SURROUNDING AREA:

 

SUBJECT SITE:  The subject site is an undeveloped 2.80 acre tract of land located on the western side of Plantation Road, just south of Oakley Industrial Boulevard.  The site is zoned AG-1 (Agricultural) and is surrounded by the site designated for the apartment component of the South Park mixed use development pursuant to 2002Z -0124 SFC.

 

            NEARBY AND ADJACENT PROPERTIES/ZONINGS: NON-RESIDENTIAL

 

**         North - Use: Under Development

            Petition: 2002Z -0124 SFC

            Zone:  MIX (Mixed Use)

Density: Retail - 1,927.94 gross sq. ft. per acre zoned/ total of 290,000 sq. ft. Townhouse - 1,000 at a density of 6.65 units per acre; 

Multi-family - 350 at 2.33 units per acre 

            Heated Area:  Multi-family - 600 sq. ft. for 1-bedroom unit

                                       800 sq. ft. for 2-bedroom units

                                       900 sq. ft. for 3-bedroom units

                                       Townhouse - 1,100 sq. ft.

           

**         Northwest - Use: Hampton Inn (Existing)

            City of Fairburn

 

**         Further Northwest - Use: Mc Donald's (Existing)

            Petition: 2001Z -0076 SFC

            Zone:  C-2 (Commercial)

            Density:  10,000 Sq. Ft.

 

**         Further Northwest - Use: Waffle House (Existing)

            Petition: Z71 -161 SFC

            Zone:  C-2 (Commercial)

            Density: None Stated

 

**         West - Use: Cat Certified Sales/Truck Stop (Existing)

            City of Fairburn

 

**         Further West - Use: Zaxby's Restaurant and Howard Johnson Hotel (Existing)

            City of Fairburn

           

**         Further West - Use: Liquor Store and Chevron Gas Station (Existing)

            City of Fairburn

                       

            NEARBY AND ADJACENT PROPERTIES/ZONINGS: RESIDENTIAL

 

**         South - Use: Field Stone Manor Townhouse Development (Existing)

            City of Fairburn

**         East - Use: Orchard Springs Apartment Development (Existing)

            Petition: Z74-092 SFC

            Zone:  A (Medium Density Apartment)

            Density: 9.8 Units per acre

 

            RECENT DENIALS IN AREA:

 

**         There have been no RECENT DENIALS in the immediate area.

 

            MISCELLANEOUS USES AND ZONINGS IN THE AREA:

 

**         The City of Fairburn

 

SITE PLAN ANALYSIS:

 

Based on the applicant's site plan submitted to the Department of Environment and Community Development on July 30, 2006, Staff offers the following considerations:

 

LAND USE AND DENSITY

 

The applicant is proposing to develop 48 apartment units on a 2.80-acre tract of land at a density of 17.15 units per acre.  The proposed development is a tract of land which is completely surrounded by an area designated for 350 apartment units pursuant to 2002Z -0124 SFC.  The applicant indicated that 48 units of the apartment component are located adjacent to a truck parking development.  The applicant has entered into a land exchange with the adjacent property owner which will allow for the exchange of this tract and the portion of the site adjacent to the truck stop parking facility.  Given that the proposed development will not increase the number of approved apartment units or the density of the overall mixed use zoning, Staff is of the opinion that the proposed A-L (Apartment-Limited) zoning of the subject site is consistent with Board action in the area.  Therefore, Staff recommends APPROVAL CONDITIONAL of the proposed zoning.

 

BUILDING SETBACKS

 

The applicant's site plan does not indicate any building setbacks, however the applicant has agreed to comply with the development standards of the A-L (Apartment Limited) zoning district.  The applicant has also agreed to develop the subject site in accordance with the surrounding mixed use development.  Therefore, Staff supports the applicant's request.

 

MINIMUM HEATED FLOOR AREA

 

The surrounding mixed use development requires the developer to provide a minimum heated floor area for the multi-family use of 600 square feet for 1-bedroom units; 800 square feet for 2-bedroom units and 900 square feet for 3-bedroom units.  The applicant has agreed to provide the same standards for the proposed 48-unit apartment development. 

LANDSCAPE STRIPS AND BUFFERS

 

The applicant is required to provide a 10-foot landscape strip adjacent to the surrounding MIX (Mixed Use) zoning pursuant to 2002Z -0124 SFC.  However, the applicant is requesting the following concurrent variance:

 

2006VC-0152 SFC - To delete the 10-foot landscape strip adjacent to the Mixed Use zoning (Article 4.23.1.)

 

Staff notes that the proposed development will be incorporated into the surrounding mixed used zoning.  In order to combine the respective developments the deletion of the required landscape strip is necessary. Therefore, Staff recommends APPROVAL CONDITIONAL of the proposed concurrent variance.

 

ENVIRONMENT

 

The environmental Site Analysis Report is sufficient and satisfies the requirements of the Fulton County Zoning Resolution.  A field survey of the site was conducted by County Staff to verify areas addressed in the ESA report.  Compliance with County erosion control guidelines would mitigate development impacts.  The site does not contain wetlands, floodplains, streams, steep slopes, historical sites or sensitive plants and animal species.

 

 

FINDINGS:

 

Article 28.4.1) Planning Staff shall, with respect to each zoning application, investigate and make a recommendation with respect to factors A. through H., below, as well as any other factors it may find relevant.

 

A.        WHETHER THE ZONING PROPOSAL WILL PERMIT A USE THAT IS SUITABLE IN VIEW OF THE USE AND DEVELOPMENT OF ADJACENT AND NEARBY PROPERTY.

 

FINDING:      The proposed apartment development, if developed with Staff's Recommended Conditions, is suitable for the subject site given the approved development in the surrounding area.

 

B.        Whether the zoning proposal will adversely affect the existing use or usability of adjacent or nearby property.

 

FINDING:      In Staff's opinion, the proposed development will not have an adverse effect on the use or usability of adjacent and nearby properties if developed in accordance with the Recommended Conditions.

 


C.        WHETHER THE PROPERTY TO BE AFFECTED BY THE ZONING PROPOSAL HAS A REASONABLE ECONOMIC USE AS CURRENTLY ZONED.

 

FINDING:      The subject site may have a reasonable use as currently zoned.

 

D.        WHETHER THE ZONING PROPOSAL WILL RESULT IN A USE WHICH WILL OR COULD CAUSE AN EXCESSIVE BURDENSOME USE OF EXISTING STREETS, TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES, UTILITIES, OR SCHOOLS.

 

FINDING:      Staff does not anticipate the proposed use will have a significant impact on the facilities and utilities serving the area.

 

E.        WHETHER THE ZONING PROPOSAL IS IN CONFORMITY WITH THE POLICIES AND INTENT OF THE LAND USE PLAN.

 

FINDING:      The proposed multi-family development and use is inconsistent with the suggestion of the Land Use Map, however, it is consistent with the Comprehensive Plan Policies.

 

LAND USE PLAN MAP:  Business Park

 

Proposed Use/Density:  Apartments - 48 units at 17.15 units per acre

 

The Comprehensive Plan Land Use Map suggests Business Park for the subject site and areas east of the site. 

 

PLAN POLICIES:

 

Provide for the transition of land uses from higher to lower densities and between different land uses.

 

To encourage the development of a diverse mix of housing types, housing sizes, and prices/rents in response to the current and projected needs of County residents.

 

F.         WHETHER THERE ARE OTHER EXISTING OR CHANGING CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE USE AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE PROPERTY WHICH GIVE SUPPORTING GROUNDS FOR EITHER APPROVAL OR DISAPPROVAL OF THE ZONING PROPOSAL.

 

FINDING:      Existing zonings and current development trends in the area and adopted land use policies support this request for multi-family development.

 


G.        WHETHER THE ZONING PROPOSAL WILL PERMIT A USE WHICH CAN BE CONSIDERED ENVIRONMENTALLY ADVERSE TO THE NATURAL RESOURCES, ENVIRONMENT AND CITIZENS OF FULTON COUNTY.

 

FINDING:      The proposed development/use is not considered environmentally adverse affecting natural resources, the environment, or the citizens of Fulton County. 

 

CONCLUSION:

 

Provided Staff's Recommended Conditions are incorporated into the development of the site, the proposed multi-family development is consistent with the policies and intent of the Comprehensive Plan and with recent zoning approvals in the area.  Therefore, Staff recommends this petition be APPROVED CONDITIONAL subject to the attached Recommended Conditions.  Staff is of the opinion that the required landscape strip would not be necessary because of the combining of the respective developments, and therefore recommends APPROVAL CONDITIONAL of the proposed concurrent variance.

 


RECOMMENDED CONDITIONS

 

If this petition is approved by the Board of Commissioners, it should be APPROVED A-L (Apartment Limited) CONDITIONAL subject to the owner's agreement to the following enumerated conditions. Where these conditions conflict with the stipulations and offerings contained in the Letter of Intent, these conditions shall supersede unless specifically stipulated by the Board of Commissioners.

 

1.         To the owner's agreement to restrict the use of the subject property as follows:

 

a.         No more than 48 total dwelling units at a maximum density of 17.15 dwelling units per acre based on the total acreage zoned, whichever is less. Approved unit totals are not guaranteed. The developer is responsible through site engineering (at the time of application for a Land Disturbance Permit) to demonstrate that all units within the approved development meet or exceed all the development standards of Fulton County. The total unit yield of the subject site shall be determined by this final engineering.

 

b.         The minimum heated floor area per dwelling unit shall be as follows: multi-family units shall be a minimum of 600 square feet for 1-bedroom units; 800 square feet for 2-bedroom units; 900 square feet for 3-bedroom units.

 

2.         To the owner's agreement to abide by the following:

 

a.         To the site plan received by the Department of Environment and Community Development on September 26, 2006.  Said site plan is conceptual only and must meet or exceed the requirements of the Zoning Resolution and these conditions prior to the approval of a Land Disturbance Permit. In the event the Recommended Conditions of Zoning cause the approved site plan to be substantially different, the applicant shall be required to complete the concept review procedure prior to application for a Land Disturbance Permit. Unless otherwise noted herein, compliance with all conditions shall be in place prior to the issuance of the first Certificate of Occupancy.

 

b.         All recreational and common areas which may be held in common shall be accessible via dedicated roadways, easements, sidewalks, trails, etc. and shall be maintained by a mandatory homeowners association, whose proposed documents of incorporation shall be submitted to the Director of the Department of Environment and Community Development for review and approval prior to the recording of the first final plat.

 

3.         To the owner's agreement to the following site development considerations:

 

a.         To delete the 10-foot landscape strip adjacent to MIX (Mixed Use) zoning. (2006VC-0152 SFC)

 

4.         To the owner's agreement to abide by the following traffic requirements, dedications and improvements:

 

a.         Reserve for Fulton County along the necessary property frontage of the following roadways, prior to the approval of a Land Disturbance permit, sufficient land as necessary to provide for compliance with the Comprehensive Plan. All building setback lines shall be measured from the dedication but at no time shall a building be allowed inside the area of reservation. All required landscape strips and buffers may straddle the reservation line so that the reservation line bisects the required landscape strip or buffer. At a minimum, 10 feet of the required landscape strip or buffer shall be located outside the area of reservation. All required tree plantings per Article 4.23 shall be placed within the portion of the landscape strip or buffer that lies outside the area of reservation.

 

45 feet from centerline of Plantation Road or as may be required by the Georgia Department of Transportation;

 

b.         Dedicate at no cost to Fulton County along the entire property frontage, prior to the approval of a Land Disturbance Permit, sufficient land as necessary to provide the following rights-of-way, and dedicate at no cost to Fulton County such additional right-of-way as may be required to provide at least 10.5 feet of right-of-way from the back of curb of all abutting road improvements, as well as allow the necessary construction easements while the rights-of-way are being improved:

 

30  feet from centerline of Plantation Road.

 

c.           Improve Plantation Road to meet Fulton County Standards.

 

5.         To the owner's agreement to abide by the following:

 

a.         Prior to submitting the application for a (LDP) with the Department of Environment and Community Development, Development Review Division, arrange to meet with the Fulton County Traffic Engineer.  A signed copy of the results of these meetings will be required to be submitted along with the application for a Land Disturbance Permit.

 

b.         Prior to submitting the application for an LDP, arrange an on-site evaluation of existing specimen trees/stands, buffers, and tree protection zones within the property boundaries with the Fulton County Arborist.  A signed copy of the results of these meetings will be required to be submitted along with the application for an LDP.

 

c.         Prior to submitting the application for an LDP, the developer/engineer shall contact the Public Works Department, Water Services Division, and arrange to meet on-site with an engineer from the Surface Water Management Program (SWMP), who is responsible for review of Storm Water Concept Plan submittals.

 

d.         Prior to submitting the application for an LDP, the developer and/or engineer shall submit to the SWMP, through the Development Review Division, a project Storm Water Concept Plan.  This concept plan shall indicate the preliminary location of the storm water management facilities intended to manage the quality and quantity of storm water.  The concept plan shall specifically address the existing downstream off-site drainage conveyance system(s) that the proposed development surface runoff will impact, and the discharge path(s) from the outlet of the storm water management facilities to the off-site drainage system(s) and/or appropriate receiving waters.  As part of the Storm Water Concept Plan submittal, a preliminary capacity analysis shall be performed by the engineer on the off-site drainage system(s) points of constraint.  The capacity analysis shall determine the capacity of all existing constraint points, such as pipes, culverts, etc. from the point of storm water discharge at the proposed development site boundary downstream to the confluence of the receiving drainage course at a point where the drainage area is at least ten times the proposed development site area and the next downstream drainage area having a drainage area of fifty acres or more.  The critical capacity points shall be selected based upon the engineer's field observation, professional judgment, and limited field survey data.  The analysis shall identify the downstream properties pre and post-development 100-year water surface elevations, and for any post-development water surface elevation increase exceeding 0.05 feet, the developer shall acquire the applicable offsite drainage easement to accommodate the 100-year storm flow through impacted properties.  Where Fulton County has completed a model of the basin, it shall be used by the developer in the analyses.

 

e.         Where storm water currently drains by sheet flow and it is proposed to be collected to and/or discharged at a point, such that the discharge from the storm water management facility outlet crosses a property line, such discharge shall mimic pre-development sheet flow conditions.  A description of the method proposed to achieve post-development sheet flow conditions shall be provided as part of the Storm Water Concept Plan.  Should the method to achieve sheet flow across an external property line be unsuccessful, the developer shall acquire an easement(s) from the point of discharge to a point down gradient at a live dry weather stream sufficient to contain the 25 year storm flow or other location as approved by the Director of Public Works.  This condition will not apply when the storm water management facility is designed and approved to discharge directly to a stream or watercourse.

 

f.          A draft of the Inspection and Maintenance Agreement required by Fulton County Code Section 26-278 shall be submitted to the Department of Public Works with the Storm Water Concept Plan.

g.         The Inspection and Maintenance Agreement shall provide that all storm water management/detention facility outlet control structures shall be inspected, photographed, and cleaned, if necessary, on a monthly basis, by the owner.  The Inspection and Maintenance Agreement shall require that the design engineer shall prepare an operation and maintenance guidance document, for use by the owner and/or any professionals retained by the owner, to plainly describe the basic operational function of the facility(ies), including a description of a permanent marker post(s) which shall indicate that the level of sediment which, if exceeded, requires sediment removal.  The Inspection and Maintenance Agreement shall require an annual operation and maintenance report for all storm water management/detention facilities be prepared by a licensed design professional and submitted to the SWMP.  The annual report shall include monthly inspections, photographs, and documentation of the cleaning of storm water management/detention facilities outlet control structure(s) as well as an operational assessment of the facilities indicating that they do, or do not, function as described in the design guidance document (described above), and if they do not, a description of the specific actions to be taken to allow the facilities to function as intended.

 

h.         The required Inspection and Maintenance Agreement shall be recorded with the Clerk of Superior Court prior to issuance of an LDP, Grading Permit, or Building Permit associated with the development.

 

i.          The engineer/developer is required to submit, along with the application for an LDP, signed documentation verifying approval of the Storm Water Concept Plan.

 

j.          Where paved parking areas (including access aisles) are proposed to exceed 5,000 square feet, the storm water management facilities shall be designed to reduce pollutants such as oil, grease and other automobile fluids that may leak from vehicles.  A general description, or concept, of the storm water management facilities proposed to achieve the removal of such pollutants shall be submitted with the Storm Water Concept Plan.  A detailed design of such facilities shall be included in applicable documents for a land disturbance permit.

 

k.         With the application for an LDP, provide  documentation (such as channel cross-sections, centerline profile, etc.) describing the geometry of those  existing natural streams, creeks, or draws within the proposed development boundary which in the design engineer's judgment are at risk of erosion due to increased flow, provide a description of the basis utilized in judging areas to be at risk, and provide details on the Storm Water Management Plan of the post-development channel bank protection measures.

 

l.          The developer/engineer shall demonstrate to the County by engineering analysis submitted with the LDP application, that the  discharge rate and velocity of the storm water runoff resulting from the development is restricted to seventy-five percent (75%) of the pre-development conditions for the 1-year frequency storm event, up to and including the ten (10)-year frequency storm event.

 

m.        Drainage from all disturbed areas shall be collected and conveyed to a storm water management facility provided as part of the development.  The Storm Water Concept Plan shall identify any proposed areas with incidental and minor release of storm water not conveyed to such facilities, subject to the approval of the Director of Public Works.  Plans for any land disturbance permit shall show all proposed drainage patterns for the proposed development after its completion.  Any incidental release of unmanaged or untreated storm flows from any disturbed portion of the developed property shall be allowed only with the approval of the Director of Public Works.  Other than minimal incidental flows shall be specifically approved by the Director of Public Works.  Bypass flows will not be permitted except from undisturbed areas within a buffer or other protected easement.  Final plans shall provide for collection, conveyance and treatment of all approved incidental flows from developed lots or parcels, individual residences or building structures.

 

n.         Storm water management facility(ies) volumes shall be designed to achieve water quality treatment, channel protection, over bank flood protection and extreme flood protection, in accordance with the Georgia State Storm water Manual, except that the duration of release for water quality treatment shall be 48 hours.

 

 

APPENDIX

 

COMMENTS ON PUBLIC SERVICES AND UTILITIES

 

NOTE: Various Fulton County departments or divisions that may or may not be affected by the proposed development provide the following information. Comments herein are based on the applicant's conceptual site plan and are intended as general non-binding information and in no manner suggest a final finding by the commenter. All projects, if approved, are required to complete the Fulton County Plan Review process prior to the commencement of any construction activity.

 

TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES:

 

Road name:  Plantation Road

Classification:  Local Street

Level of Service: C or better

 

Anticipated Traffic Generation Rates:

Average: 150 trips per day

Peak Hour: 4 trips

 

HEALTH DEPARTMENT:

 

The Fulton County Health Department recommends that the applicant be required to connect the proposed development to public water and public sanitary sewer available to the site.

 

Since this proposed development constitutes a premise where people work, live or congregate, onsite sanitary facilities will be mandatory, prior to use or occupancy.

 

If this proposed development includes a public swimming pool as defined in the regulations including spas, whirlpools, etc., the owner or contractor must submit plans and approval by this department and must obtain a Health Department permit to construct before issuance of a building permit.  Also, the owner of the facility must obtain a Health Department permit to operate the pool prior to opening.

 

This department is requiring that plans indicating the number and location of outside refuse containers along with typical details of the pad and approach area for the refuse containers be submitted for review and approval.

 

WATER AND WASTEWATER (SEWER):

 

WATER:

 

Anticipated water demand: 14,400 gallons per day

 

This project is within the Atlanta jurisdiction.

 

Comments: This information does not guarantee that adequate water volume and pressure are available at this time or will be adequate upon application of permits. Please contact the Department of Public Works for more information.

 

SEWER:

 

Basin:  White Water Creek

Treatment Plant:  Camp Creek

Anticipated sewer demand: 12,960 gallons per day

 

The nearest wastewater pipeline to this project is +/- 500 linear feet located in Land Lot 26, District 9F.

 

Comments: This information does not guarantee that adequate sewer capacity is available at this time or will be available upon application of permits. Please contact the Department of Public Works for more information.

 

DRAINAGE:

 

Flood Plain: F.I.R.M. Panel Map No. 13121C0462E.  Approximately 0% flood plain.           

 

BOARD OF EDUCATION:

 

# of Proposed Units: 48

 

 

Schools

 

 

Elementary

 

Middle

 

Creekside High School

 

Estimated Number of Students Generated

 

7 to 13

 

4 to 8

 

4 to 8

 

State Capacity A     

 

750

 

1,075

 

1,850

 

Enrollment B    

 

967

 

1,526

 

2,290

 

Projected Under/Over State Capacity C

 

217

 

451

 

440

 

Number of Portable Classrooms   

 

8

 

12

 

21

 

Can Facility Meet Increased Demand?  

 

NO

 

NO

 

NO

A    Updated Georgia Department of Education state capacity.

B     Based on the FCSS 1rst month enrollment count.

C     Positive values indicate numbers of students a facility is projected to be over state capacity/ negative values indicate

    number of students a facility is projected to be under state capacity.

 

 

Location

 

Average to Average + 1 Std. Deviation

 

Comments

 

South Fulton - Creekside HS Region

 

One single family unit generates:

One single family unit generates:

One single family unit generates:

 

One multi-family apart. unit generates:

One multi-family apart. unit generates:

One multi-family apart. unit generates:

 

One Townhome unit generates:

One Townhome unit generates:

One Townhome unit generates:

 

 

 

0.2765 to 0.3972

0.1462 to 0.2206

0.1873 to 0.2635

 

0.1514 to 0.2762

0.0929 to 0.1674

0.0907 to 0.1709

 

0.1734 to 0.2789

0.0813 to 0.1554

0.065 to 0.0874

 

 

 

elementary school students per unit

middle school students per unit

high school students per unit

 

elementary school students per unit

middle school students per unit

high school students per unit

 

elementary school students per unit

middle school students per unit

high school students per unit

 

 

Total Revenues

 

Local and Other Revenue Sources

 

State Revenues

 

$8,497

 

$5,793

 

$2,705

 

 


TAX ASSESSOR:

 

Property Tax ID#: 09F-0700-0026-069-3, 09F-0700-0026-075-0

 

Taxes on the subject property are up to date.

 

FIRE MARSHAL:

 

Fire Station:  21

 

Impact:  The proposed development will increase water demands and EMS calls.

 

POLICE DEPARTMENT ZONING IMPACT STATEMENT:

 

Beat:  39

 

Impact Statement on Beat:

Current calls for service:  5,454

Projected calls for service: Unknown

**** Current average response time: 13 minutes South Fulton

 

** Increase in the number of residents: 96.00

 

* Increase in E-911 calls  for service (police, fire, E.M.S.): 241.00

 

*** Increase in the number of traffic accidents: 5.00

 

PROJECTED IMPACT ON DEMAND FOR POLICE SERVICES:

 

It is the policy of the Fulton County Police Department to answer all calls for service regardless of the impact of a particular development. However, two of the most noticeable indicators of the quality of police service will be as follows: As demands for service increase, police response time to calls will increase. Time available for proactive neighborhood/business patrol will decrease and crime prevention efforts will decline.

 

The Police Department does anticipate a significant impact on demand for police services.